Ukraine Battle Plunges Auto Makers Into New Provide-Chain Disaster

European auto makers corresponding to Renault SA, RNO -5.87% which owns AvtoVAZ, the Russian firm that makes the Lada model, Volkswagen AG VOW -2.39% and its manufacturers Audi, Skoda, and sports-car maker Porsche, are among the many hardest hit by the sudden cessation of enterprise in Russia and the shortage of important elements from suppliers in Ukraine.

VW mentioned Thursday that “in opposition to the background of the Russian assault on Ukraine and ensuing penalties” it was suspending manufacturing of automobiles in Russia and exports to the nation with speedy impact and till additional discover.

“With the intensive interruption of enterprise actions in Russia, the manager board is reviewing the results from the general scenario throughout this era of nice uncertainty and upheaval,” the corporate mentioned.

The fallout isn’t restricted to Europe. By the center of this week, almost a dozen world auto makers had suspended enterprise in Russia, some shutting factories indefinitely. Toyota Motor Corp. TM -1.71% mentioned on Friday it will hold its plant in St. Petersburg shut till additional discover. Ford Motor Co. suspended its three way partnership with Russia’s Sollers OJSC and halted gross sales to the nation. South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd., one of many greatest automotive makers in Russia, shut down its plant in St. Petersburg, saying it hoped to reopen in per week.

After idling two factories in jap Germany, VW has mentioned manufacturing would quickly be affected at its flagship plant in western Germany due to lacking elements from Ukraine. And producers who function crops in Russia say the stress on provide chains has been made worse by Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT worldwide interbank funds system. The blockade of Russian airspace and disruptions to delivery lanes has slowed the motion of products to a trickle.

International auto makers turned out robust income final 12 months regardless of the worldwide chip scarcity that prevented them from producing sufficient automobiles to fulfill the robust demand in lots of markets. The snarled output resulted in scant choice at supplier heaps and hovering new-vehicle costs, padding auto makers’ revenue margins. The battle is a brand new blow for the trade and will reverberate far past the sector, which is among the many greatest industrial employers in massive elements of the West.

Analysts say the preliminary affect of the conflict on some automotive makers might decrease world automobile manufacturing by an estimated 1.5 million automobiles this 12 months. That’s 2% lower than the 84.2 million automobiles that IHS Markit projected the trade would construct earlier than the conflict.

That’s the optimistic situation, says Stephanie Brinley, an automotive analyst at IHS Markit.

“It might additionally decrease manufacturing by three million automobiles,” she mentioned, including that it’s far too quickly to know the way chaotic world provide chains will turn into. “We now have no visibility,” she mentioned.

Even earlier than the conflict in Ukraine, VW was struggling to maintain meeting traces at its predominant plant in Wolfsburg, Germany, operating because of the various world shortages and commerce route disruptions.

When the conflict in Ukraine started, dozens of auto elements makers shut down their factories within the nation. Though Ukraine has a small automotive elements trade, it has turn into a key provider of wiring harnesses which can be wanted to arrange a automotive’s wiring and join its numerous parts.

Suppliers of such techniques with crops in Ukraine embrace Leoni AG, Japan’s Fujikura Ltd., Aptiv Plc, and Nexans SA . Work at these crops stopped virtually instantly after the beginning of Russia’s invasion, hitting VW’s factories in Japanese Europe in addition to Germany.

VW idled its Zwickau plant in jap Germany this week, the place it makes the ID.four electrical automotive for European markets and for export to the U.S. The corporate additionally mentioned manufacturing in Wolfsburg would start to sputter subsequent week and cease the next week due to a scarcity of elements.

Porsche, which is owned by VW, has halted manufacturing at its manufacturing unit in Leipzig, the place it builds the Panamera sedan and Macan sport-utility automobile. Interruption of manufacturing on the plant might gradual Porsche’s skill to ship the favored fashions to clients world-wide.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG mentioned it will idle manufacturing subsequent week at its predominant plant in Dingolfing, the place a spokesman mentioned the corporate builds as much as 1,600 automobiles a day together with its flagship 5-series, 7-series, and 8-series sedans. BMW can have downtime at its Munich plant and its Mini crops within the Netherlands and the U.Okay. due to lacking elements.

Skoda, the Czech auto maker owned by VW, bought 90,400 automobiles final 12 months in Russia, its second-largest market after Germany. The Czech automotive maker builds automobiles at VW’s multi-brand factories in Nizhny Novgorod and Kaluga, the place the corporate has now suspended operations.

Skoda additionally mentioned it suspended operations at a plant in Solomonovo, Ukraine, the place its companion Eurocar assembles Skoda fashions such because the Very good, Kodiaq, Karoq and Fabia for the Ukraine market.

At its predominant plant in Mlada Boleslav within the Czech Republic, the automotive maker has reduce manufacturing of its all-electric Enyaq hatchback due to a scarcity of native elements.

Suppliers which have shut their factories in Ukraine mentioned they have been consistently assessing the scenario to find out whether or not, and when, they will resume manufacturing. In the meantime, they’ve been attempting to interchange the misplaced Ukraine output by shifting to different areas.

Leoni shut its factories in Stryji and Kolomyja at first of the combating after what a spokesman mentioned have been explosions from Russian rockets close by. Leoni mentioned it was weighing the viability of shifting manufacturing from the Ukraine crops to present factories in neighboring nations corresponding to Romania, or to present crops in northern Africa.

Aptiv, a Dublin-based auto provider specialised in electronics, makes electrical techniques in western Ukraine for auto makers in Western Europe. As tensions have been rising earlier than the invasion, Aptiv started shifting some higher-volume manufacturing out of Ukraine, firm executives mentioned on Feb. 24.

“Simply so we have been higher positioned to handle disruption,” mentioned Joseph Massaro, Aptiv’s chief monetary officer. “We’ll see what occurs.”

In Russia itself, the place sanctions have made all of it however not possible to do enterprise for western companies, auto makers are starting to expire of elements and are shutting factories and suspending imports.

Toyota Motor Corp. mentioned Wednesday it will droop manufacturing in Russia from Friday till additional discover, citing problem getting the elements it wants. Toyota builds the Camry sedan and RAV4 fashions in its St. Petersburg plant and manufactures as much as 80,000 automobiles a 12 months. Many of the automobiles are bought in Russia, however a small quantity are exported to Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus, the corporate mentioned.

Toyota mentioned it will additionally halt gross sales of imported automobiles in Russia. Along with automobiles produced within the nation and automobiles imported from outdoors Russia. It sells round 120,000 automobiles a 12 months in Russia, a Toyota spokesman mentioned.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG , Hyundai, Ford, Renault and BMW have additionally closed Russian crops.

Traders have soured on the shares of corporations which can be closely uncovered to Russia.

Earlier than the conflict, Renault generated about 8% of its earnings earlier than curiosity and taxes from its Russian enterprise, in keeping with analysis by Citi. Renault shares have fallen 30% since an earnings name on Feb. 18, when traders probed the corporate about Russia and Ukraine. One investor requested administration what the affect on Renault can be “if the geopolitics tightened up a bit.”

Clotilde Delbos, Renault’s chief monetary officer, mentioned the monetary threat was carried by AvtoVAZ, not Renault, as a result of the Russian firm’s debt and financing was native with no help from Renault.

“They’re totally self-sufficient, despite the fact that they’re indebted, particularly AvtoVAZ,” she mentioned. “Nevertheless it’s purely native.”

The French automotive maker has three crops within the nation—one in Moscow, one other within the metropolis of Togliatti and a 3rd in Izhevsk, 700 miles to the east of Moscow. A Renault spokeswoman mentioned the corporate idled the Moscow plant on Feb. 28 and would hold it down till after March 5 “on account of some logistics points.”

Chinese language auto makers have additionally been making inroads into Russia and are involved in regards to the impact of the conflict on their companies. Nice Wall Motors Co. opened a plant in Russia in 2019 and greater than doubled its gross sales within the nation final 12 months. Chery Vehicle Co., which greater than tripled its Russia gross sales in 2021, has mentioned it’s in search of an area companion in Russia to supply electrical automobiles within the nation.

Russia was the third-largest export vacation spot for Chinese language autos final 12 months after Chile and Saudi Arabia, in keeping with the China Passenger Automotive Affiliation.

“The Russia-Ukraine battle is posing an enormous threat to China’s auto trade,” Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the affiliation, wrote on his social media WeChat account Sunday. Mr. Cui warned Chinese language auto exporters to be ready for the dangers of the ruble’s depreciation.

—Nick Kostov, Sean McLain, Nora Eckert, Raffaele Huang contributed to this text.

Write to William Boston at william.boston@wsj.com